After the debates, a new deal | Elections Canada 2019

While the Liberals have been quite comfortably ahead of the campaign since the start of the campaign, we can now see a scenario where the next government will probably be in the minority. And he could even be trained by the conservatives. Nothing is played, of course, but it is now possible.

The Bloc Québécois push for two weeks, combined with the smaller New Democrats (NDP) in Ontario and British Columbia, is shaking up all the initial assumptions.

The Liberals have long believed that they would make gains in Quebec, which would allow them to make up for unavoidable losses in the Maritimes, where they won all seats in 2015. Except that they did not see the Bloc at all. radar. They even claimed that the party would not be a factor in the election.

The Liberals have therefore quite neglected to plan a campaign, a theme and a program specific to Quebec, which has been part of the DNA of liberal victories for half a century. They also completely ignored the demands of Prime Minister François Legault – the most popular politician in Quebec today – allowing Yves-François Blanchet to present himself as his spokesperson.

Meanwhile, Mr. Scheer multiplied the promises in Quebec, but could not forget his deficient French, his well-marked program on the right and his lack of imagination, since he took up a large number of initiatives of his predecessor Stephen Harper (tax credit for public transit, arts and sports for children, etc.)

The Ignored Block

The Conservatives also ignored the Bloc Québécois, leaving Yves-François Blanchet to campaign widely under the radar and without being too worried by his opponents.

But for many Quebeckers who voted for the Bloc for two decades, it is recognized that the Bloc can not claim power. It is even easier to vote for the Bloc that sovereignty is not on the menu.

Especially since neither the Liberal leader nor the Conservative leader is generating much enthusiasm.

After a long honeymoon, Mr. Trudeau was disappointed at the end of his term. From the trip to India to the purchase of a pipeline through the SNC-Lavalin saga where, even if we agree with the Prime Minister's position on the merits, he still handled the file very badly.

The problem of the Trudeau campaign is above all a lack of enthusiasm. In 2015, voters under the age of 35, traditionally less likely to vote, came out in droves for the Liberals. This year, voters over 55 – whose turnout is still high – could decide the fate of the election.

In Quebec, the vast majority of them are Bloc voters. In English Canada, they are mostly Conservatives. This could be the key to this election.

In this end of the campaign, where the chiefs' itineraries are more revealing of the tight races than the polls, we see Jagmeet Singh returning to British Columbia, where he has already spent about ten days. Justin Trudeau is expected to spend two full days in Quebec at the end of next week, when he was scheduled to be in Ontario.

The Bloc is seriously threatening the Liberals in Quebec, after significantly slashing Conservative support. For the last 10 days, the Bloc has taken seven percentage points in the polls, which is a very fast progression in the context. This increase also allows it to occupy the first place in voting intentions among Francophones.

No wonder it feels on the ground. For the past few days, we have seen posters of Bloc candidates appearing in certain ridings where we have not seen one since 2011.

Removed from the Liberals

Yves-François Blanchet's party can now hope to win twenty or even thirty seats – possibly more, if the progress continues – the majority of which would be taken away from the Liberals.

Faced with this, in the debate on Thursday night, Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer could only repeat an argument now worn out, that the vote for the Bloc is a lost vote, since he can not take power.

Quebecers having knowingly given the majority of seats in this party in six of the last eight elections since 1993, we can say that they are immune to this type of message.

Similarly, the current weakness of the Parti Québécois makes the Conservatives' argument that the success of the Bloc leads to the resurgence of the sovereignists and another referendum practically laughable.

But in politics, as in science, observation can change the phenomenon. Can the Liberals get back to the Bloc, to the NDP, or to the greens, a few voters who fear, above all, a return to power for the Conservatives? The danger is that such a strategy almost admits that we risk defeat. But, it seems, it's the only argument left.