Remember Harvey (2017) and Frances (2004) or tropical storm Allison (2001) and hurricane Keith (2000)? Do you know what they have in common with Hurricane Dorian, now closer to the southeastern coast of the United States? All carried stationary (or extremely slow) routes affecting land for a large number of hours. What makes Dorian such a special and undoubtedly historical event? Two aspects stand out: the extreme intensity of it (in excess of 185mph sustained when touching the ground), and the location.
In previous cases of stationary cyclones the intensities had mostly been moderate. For example, Harvey (2017) was category 4 when moving over land, but its erratic movement event occurred when it was already a tropical storm, which generated devastating floods in the Houston, Texas area. Allison (2001) was also a tropical storm in a position similar to Harvey, but its devastating effects were related again to extreme and persistent rains. Frances (2004) had a slow and erratic movement in a position similar to Dorian: the northwest of the Bahamas. The difference is that Frances was much weaker (category 2 moderate) and proceeded at about 4-5 mph towards the Palm Beach area. I don't forget because it was my first hurricane outside of Puerto Rico, experienced in the area of Jupiter Island, Florida, which is estimated to have hurricane winds for 18 hours, storm for 36 hours, and calm the eye for approximately five hours.
The analogue most similar to Dorian that I can find in recent decades in the Atlantic is Keith (2000). This affected the Belize Keys for a period of about 24-30 hours as a category 3-4 hurricane. The impact was devastating for those islands due to the long exposure to high intensity hurricane winds. This would be something similar to having a hurricane Hugo in the northeast, Vieques and Culebra for more than a day. Even so, all the precedents exposed here fall short (and by far) compared to nuclear impact that Dorian gave to Abacos and Grand Bahama. In this area the history books have been literally burned.
There is knowledge of tropical cyclones touching land with winds of 185mph or more. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane swept through the Florida Keys with estimated winds of 185mph, similar to Dorian. More recently, Typhoon Haiyan (2013) leveled villas in the southeast of the Philippines with an estimated satellite intensity (not hurricane measures) of 195mph. Extreme earth strikes occur, Dorian's special thing is the duration of the punishment to the same area. Why then did it stay so intense for so many hours if it affected land? No and that the earth weakens the hurricanes? Valid questions, both. The reality is that the small size and lack of mountains make Abacos and Grand Bahama not much hindrance to Dorian or any other cyclone. In this case, the weakening observed is mainly due to the fact that the hurricane was so many hours over the same maritime zone, consuming much of the oceanic heat energy that hurricanes so badly need to survive.
The next question would be: Are cases of cyclones with erratic movement near land becoming more common? Within this field we begin to propose that this is correct, and that climate change may be influencing this type of behavior in storms, but the tests are not definitive. Tropical cyclones move within the large-scale air flow controlled by two main factors: high pressures, and troughs. These systems move slowly or park in very specific conditions, which lead to a "dead zone" of environmental winds. This causes the cyclones to remain “waiting” for a trough or high pressure to be strengthened so that the environmental winds increase and a movement of movement is generated.
With strong hurricanes such as Dorian, we look at the average levels of the atmosphere (15,000-20,000 feet high) as winds at this height influence the route more. Weak storms and hurricanes respond more to winds at low levels, since these systems do not have such high heights. As he approached the Bahamas, Dorian was moving west thanks to high pressure north of the hurricane. Saturday began on fateful collapse in air currents, since the high pressure withdrew to the east while it weakened.
In this scenario, a trough normally comes from the northwest and causes the hurricane to make a “recurvature” to the north and northeast eventually. This is the well-known "tube that sucks" by Don Cholito. What happened in this case was that the first trough was not strong or extensive enough to influence the path of a Dorian force monster (category 5 may be more difficult to move due to its extreme height in the atmosphere) . Then, the hurricane was without movement during Sunday and Monday, "waiting" for another trough coming from the northwest to "pick it up", which is what we are observing today Tuesday. In the interim total and unprecedented devastation for the northwest of the Bahamas. With the passing of the days we will find out the real result of this hurricane there. I suspect that, unfortunately, We're just seeing the tip of the iceberg.
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Meteorologist José García argues about lessons from complicated forecasts regarding the behavior of Cyclone Dorian
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
The meteorologist José M. García Rivera analyzes conditions that can influence the development or weakening of the Dorian storm en route to the Greater Antilles
Thursday, August 8, 2019
Meteorologist José M. García Rivera recalls the devastating passage of Hurricane San Ciriaco over Puerto Rico
Source link
https://www.elnuevodia.com/opinion/columnas/radiografiaadorianyotrosciclonesestacionarios-columna-2515839/