Three new presidential polls, with a coincidence and several differences – 09/08/2019

After the generalized pifie in the face of the STEP, in which Alberto Fernández destroyed with an unthinkable difference, the pollsters called each other for a few days in silence. There was self-criticism, private debates and public justifications. And a start over. 28 days after that surprise August 11, eight presidential polls have already transcended. Clarin revealed the first five days ago. Now three others joined, which fold to a generalized coincidence but bring differences.

The studies are from two relatively new local consultants (Clivajes and Projection) and a Brazilian firm (Atlas Intel), which publishes its work in the international news agency Bloomberg. What is the common denominator? In what numbers today they would guarantee Alberto Fernández a win in the first round from October 27.

The two requirements established by the Constitution to avoid a ballot, the winner reaches 45% of the affirmative / positive votes (those who choose a candidate, excluding blank or null votes from the calculation base), or exceeds 40% and their immediate persecutor It is more than 10 points away.

In the primaries, according to the data that the National Electoral Chamber ratified last week, the candidate of the Frente de Todos loosely surpassed both filters: Fernandez reached 49.49% positive feedback and Mauricio Macri it was 16.56 points, with its 32.93%.

As Clarín said, to force a ballot, Macri must get a political and statistical feat. Just one example: if Alberto F. keeps his votes, about 2.5 million voters should be added more than in the PASO and of those new voters more than half would have to opt for Change Together.

It's possible? What do the polls say? The five that advanced this newspaper, of the consultants Ricardo Rouvier, Trespuntozero, Gustavo Córdoba, Oh Panel and Federico González, provided between 11.7 and 21 points of difference in favor of Fernández, with the candidate K on a floor of 45.9 and a ceiling of 51.2, and with the President between 30.1 and 34.2. That is, there would be no second round.

Now three measurements were added, also anticipating victory in October, but with differences in differences.

Consulting Clivajes: 20.08 in favor of the K

It is a consultancy created in May of this year, by three graduates in Political Science from the University of La Matanza. New, they had a first success: at the end of July, they conducted a survey showing a difference in favor of Fernández of 12.14 points, without projecting the blank vote and with 4.4% undecided.

With that background, they measured again nationally. Between September 1 and 5, they relieved online 1,267 cases, with margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

On page 22 of the report, the last one, we see the electoral picture: there, the formula K widens the difference over the ruling. It's 20.08 points away in affirmative votes, by 52.62% of the Front of All against 32.54% of Together for Change.

Complete Lavagna-Urtubey with 9.36% (took 8.44% in the PASO), Del Caño-Del Plá with 2.94% (2.93% in the PASO), Gómez Centurión-Hotton with 1.42% (2.72% in the PASO) and Espert-Rosales with 1.12% (2.23% in the STEP).

In the conclusions of the report, they highlight:

– "The results observed in this survey regarding issues that are related to the entire electoral context, yield a result that a priori it will not differ substantially from what happened in the STEP of August 11".

– "In this regard, it can be seen that the adverse socio-economic context not only does not report improvements in the re-election claims of President Mauricio Macri but that further harm your situation given that the candidate of the Frente de Todos, Alberto Fernández, would increase his electoral flow by raising his intention to vote in values ​​greater than 52% of the total affirmative votes. "

Projection: 17.2 in favor of the K

She is a consultant created a little over a year and a half ago, by sociologists of the UBA. He made measurements for local elections, in La Matanza, Mendoza and towns of the Interior of the province of Buenos Aires.

It was from the firms that, in the pre-STEP, more difference used to give the Fernandez. His last forecast before the primary, confirmed to Clarin, was 42.5% to 35.3%: 7.2 points away.

After that election, between August 17 and 26 he made a survey of 1,200 cases, national and online, with + / 3.5% margin of error. With 4.5% undecided, it gives 17.2 points advantage to the K: 50.9% to 33.7%. The rest: Lavagna 6.1%, Del Caño 2.3%, Gómez Centurión 1.4% and Espert 1.1%.

Intel Atlas: 9.7 in favor of the K

It is a Brazilian consultant, which measures in different countries, including Argentina, and publishes its reports in the international agency Bloomberg, linked to financial news.

Already for PASO, there were other works by Brazilian consultants (such as Ideia Big Data) published in Bloomberg. The background was not good: they gave Macri 3 points of advantage.

The Intel Atlas poll was done on September 2 and 3, 2,000 cases online, with a margin of error of +/- 2%. Fernandez predicts a win in the first round, but for a smaller gap (9.7 points): 48.2% to 38.5% of Macri affirmative votes.

Complete: Lavagna 7.4%, Del Caño 2%, Espert 2% and Gómez Centurión 1.9%.