Polls: those who raised and lowered the intention to vote after the STEP

Surveys do not define everything. The result of the PASO did not coincide much with what the polls had been publishing – for example, in the great difference obtained by Alberto Fernández and in the high percentage of votes obtained by the candidate Gómez Centurión, to cite two examples – and it is possible that in these hours the consultants are refining the methodology to avoid this being repeated in the generals of October, since the surveys always generate expectations.

After the new scenario after the PASO, the surveys that are beginning to spread – despite the fact that the Government managed to avoid a new explosion of the dollar – also ratifies the advantage of Alberto Fernández over Mauricio Macri, to the point that they give him the winner in first round. However, another fact to highlight is that the votes go in the direction of the two great candidates, Macri and Fernández, and in the opposite direction to the candidates without chances of arriving at the Casa Rosada, such as Espert, Gómez Centurión, Del Caño and Lavagna . This is confirmed by three surveys released on Sunday by Clarin in which he analyzes the current scenario about voting intentions (in full screen):

The surveys were done by three companies: Clivajes Consultores, Projection and Atlas Intel. The first – in which 1,267 people were surveyed – awards 20.08 points in favor of Kirchnerism (Alberto Fernández), the one made by Projection (1,200 respondents), 17.2 points in favor of the Peronist and that of Atlas Intel (2 thousand cases during September), 9.7 points in favor of Fernández.

Candidates: STEP vs post STEP surveys

Alberto Fernández, of 47.6% obtained in the PASO at 52.6% (Clivajes), 50.9% (Projection) and 48.2% (Intel Atlas). That is, better performance in the three surveys with respect to what was obtained in the primary.

Mauricio Macri, from 32% of primary schools to 32.5% (Clivajes), 33.7% (Projection) and 38.5% (Intel Atlas). Also with better performance in the three surveys regarding the votes achieved in the first, although insufficient to aspire to the second round.

Roberto Lavagna, from 8.22% to 9.36% (Clivajes), 6.1% (Projection) and 7.4% (Intel Atlas). That is, of the three surveys, only one improved performance.

Nicolás del Caño, from 2.86% to 2.9% (Clivajes), 2.3% (Projection) and 2% (Intel Atlas); that is to say, it has practically maintained the same level of votes.

José Gómez Centurión, from 2.6% to 1.42%, 1.40% and 1.9%, respectively, while Espert, from 2.18% to 1.12%, 1.1% and 2%, respectively. That is to say, the most affected candidates in this "reorder" of votes, according to the polls, are Gómez Centurión and Espert.

On October 27, not only the next president is elected since December 10. Half of the Chamber of Deputies and one third of that of Senators will also be renewed. The presidential candidate who achieves more than 45 percent of the votes or at least 40 percent and a difference greater than ten points from the formula that follows, will be the winner. If this does not happen, there will be a second round on November 24, in which only the two most voted lists will participate.