"No deal", report or elections, the possible scenarios of Brexit

On the brink of an eventful week in the British Parliament, where MPs will try to legislate urgently to prevent a UK exit from the European Union without agreement, here are the possible scenarios:

London and Brussels fail to reach an agreement and the UK leaves the European Union without a withdrawal agreement by the scheduled date of 31 October.

Feared by the economic community, such a brutal exit is fearing the restoration of tariffs as well as shortages of food, gasoline and drugs.

The government began this weekend a vast information campaign encouraging businesses and individuals to "prepare for Brexit".

UK MPs vote on a law compelling the government to seek a further postponement of the EU's exit date from the EU, in order to avoid an exit without agreement.

Opposition politicians could benefit from the support of rebel conservatives to vote for such a text, even though Boris Johnson has threatened to expel the Tories who would be tempted to do so.

In any case, the deputies have only a few days to legislate before Parliament is suspended next week and until 14 October. The suspension, decided by Boris Johnson, has provoked a wave of indignation from the opponents of a "no deal" who see it as an attempt to gag them.

Then it would be necessary for the government to comply with the will of Parliament. The refusal of the minister in charge of preparing for an exit without agreement, Michael Gove, to say whether the government would submit to such legislation, fuels the fears of a passage in force Boris Johnson.

He said Monday night that "under no circumstances" he would ask for a postponement in Brussels.

The opposition, led by Labor, could vote a motion of censure to bring down the government, whose absolute majority in the House of Commons is one vote, which could lead to early parliamentary elections. But nothing prevents the Prime Minister from deciding that the vote takes place after October 31, after the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

He could also decide himself to call early elections. He needs the support of two thirds of the deputies. This hypothesis swelled Monday, according to political scientists, although Boris Johnson said in the evening that he "does not want an election" in a statement in front of Downing Street.

According to former Conservative Justice Minister David Gauke, a Conservative opposed to an exit without agreement, the government's strategy is to "lose this week" in Parliament "and then call legislative elections by eliminating those of us who do not are not against Brexit, not against a departure from the European Union, but who consider that we should leave with an agreement ".

London and Brussels manage to reach an agreement and agree on the crucial issue of the Irish backstop. This clause aims to prevent the return to a physical boundary between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

But EU negotiator Michel Barnier has ruled Sunday to renegotiate the "backstop" that Boris Johnson wants to see disappear.