Analysts predict closed elections in Canada

The contest began on Wednesday when the current Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, visited the Governor General, Julie Payette in the residence of Rideau Hall, in this capital, to request the dissolution of the 42nd Parliament and the drafting of the corresponding measures.Canadians "have to make an important decision" about the future path of their country, Trudeau said as he unleashed the official launch of the federal election campaign.

The incumbent, who is seeking his second four-year term, wasted little time in raising what the liberals expect the ballot box issue to be.

'We've done a lot together these past four years, but the truth is that we're just getting started. So Canadians have to make an important decision. Will we go back to the failed policies of the past, or will we continue moving forward? The liberal aspirant told reporters outside Rideau Hall.

The beginning of the fight for votes will allow groups to spend much more money than allowed by the limits of pre-election expenses in a scenario where liberals and conservatives register a technical tie in the polls.

According to an analysis by Éric Grenier of the CBC News network, it is rare for a Canadian federal election campaign to begin with such a dubious result about group favoritism.

However, he emphasizes, a deeper look suggests that liberals have some advantages over conservatives in the way their vote breaks down across the country – scarce, potentially vulnerable advantages, but nonetheless advantages.

The Canada Poll Tracker of the CBC, a set of all the survey data available to the public, has liberals and conservatives tied to one tenth of a percentage point, with 33.8 percent each, says the expert .

The polls march in third place the New Democrats, with only 12.9 percent support, followed by Elizabeth May and the Greens, which stand at 10.7 percent.

Other groups such as the Québec Block and the Popular Party stand with 4.4 and 3.3 percent support, respectively, which puts the dispute as a race between the two majority groups.

Current polls suggest that neither party is in a position to win the 170 seats needed to reach the majority, and it is estimated that there will be a division of about 164 seats for liberals and 140 for conservatives.

At the moment the liberals have 177 seats in the House of Commons, the conservatives 95 and those of the New Democratic Party, 39; the rest of the political forces have less than 10 seats.

mv / lb