A respite for the Government: the dollar gap remains below 10%

The evolution of the gap between the "free" dollar and the official one became the central fact that investors look after the implementation of exchange controls. In the second since the measure was implemented, the result ended up being satisfactory for the Government. The distance between both types of dollar remained below 10%.

The wholesale dollar practically did not move throughout the day and there was even a minor intervention of the Central to prevent any possibility of rebound. The price closed at practically the same level as the previous day, at $ 55.99. Meanwhile, the Cash with Liquidation and the "free" closed at values ​​close to $ 60, despite having touched the $ 62. In this way, the distance was about $ 4, that is, the equivalent of 7%.

The "gap" is what will be marking in the coming days if the exchange "umbrella", as the head of the Central, Guido Sandleris called it, works or not properly. To the extent that it increases well beyond 15%, the distortions typical of these controlled markets will begin to appear. For example, there is a danger that demand will increase sharply in the "formal" market and then go on sale in the "free" market.

At least in the very short term it would seem that both markets can have a balanced behavior. In the case of the official, there are the currency settlements of the field for past exports and that represents a relevant offer in the coming days. And with regard to the "free" market, for now the participation of companies that choose to buy dollars to get them out of the system is not significant. But there is a danger that it will grow as the days go by.

Do youWhy does the gap between the "official" and the "free" dollar become so relevant? The Economist Emiliano Libman He posted an explanation on social networks: "If the price goes up, it's because the dollar claimants are willing to pay that higher price to save." He adds, on the other hand, that "If the difference is enlarged, the operations move from the official to the parallel, which can result in pressures to devalue the white exchange rate."

Of course, the relevant thing for the Government is that the system announced on the weekend endures as best as possible until the presidential elections. And it will not be easy to achieve, given that expectations continue to deteriorate and that uncertainty will continue to increase as it approaches October 27.

For now, el behavior of financial variables continues to worry. The reserves of the Central Bank fell another US $ 1 billion yesterday, mainly due to the continued withdrawal of deposits in dollars and also marginally due to the intervention in the exchange market, although the amount was not reported.

The strategy is to keep the dollar as ironed as possible to calm the spirits and reduce the "dripping" of foreign currency deposits, which exceeded USD 32,000 million before the PASS and are now below USD 28,000 million.