Satellites: "Canada plays with fire"

Each launch carries a certain risk. As small as it is today, the Canadian government will hold its breath. He badly needs his three satellites.

If Falcon 9 rockets take off again next Wednesday in California, Canada would be in a particularly difficult and embarrassing situation.

The country has only one operational radar satellite, RADARSAT-2. It has been in orbit since 2007. The machine has begun its twelfth year of operation. However, its useful life is estimated at seven years.

It's a bit like Ottawa replacing a water heater, but it was slow to do it and crossed its fingers. Except that in this case, it is at the same time an issue of national security, sovereignty, environment and economy.

Canada is playing with fire, but it has not burned yet. We are very fortunate that RADARSAT-2 lasts longer than expected.

critical role

RADARSAT-2 facilitates sea and ice monitoring, disaster management and environmental monitoring. In all, 14 federal departments use its data, including National Defense.

Until recently, the satellite played a crucial role during the floods in Quebec and Ontario. It allowed to follow the evolution of the spring freshet and to measure the extent of the damages. Radars can see through clouds and observe floods to the nearest centimeter
, said Natural Resources Canada.

Three, two, one … delays

The three new satellites called RADARSAT Constellation should have taken over for quite some time now. Their launch was planned in 2014.

No doubt they are very good satellites. It is extremely important. National Defense is eagerly awaiting them to better monitor the oceans and shorelines
says Michael Byers, Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law.

But delays have multiplied, as well as cost overruns. In 10 years, the RADARSAT Constellation Mission bill has doubled from $ 600 million to more than $ 1.2 billion.

The major cuts to the Canadian Space Agency by the Harper government have certainly not helped. In addition to plunging the project into a long period of uncertainty, the Conservatives have contributed to the explosion of costs by delaying approval of the manufacture of the three satellites.

It should be noted that, initially, not all three satellites in the RADARSAT Constellation should be launched at the same time, but that the plans changed along the way. Is there not a risk of sending them in a single rocket?

There is a risk yes, like any launch (…) The decision confirms that we were more winners to launch the three satellites at the same time
answered Steve Iris, Mission Manager at the Canadian Space Agency. He adds that there is also "a question of cost reduction".

The risk of failure of the launch is estimated at 5.5%, according to an internal document of the Canadian Space Agency dated March 2018. However, the consequences could be heavy.

<q data-attributes = "{" lang ": {" value ":" fr "," label ":" French "}," value ": {" html ":" If the Government of Canada decided to go from forward with the option of rebuilding the three satellites, if they are destroyed it would cost 450at 600millions of dollars and would take three to four years "," text ":" If the Government of Canada decided to go ahead with the option of rebuilding the three satellites, if they were destroyed, it would cost $ 450 to 600million dollars and would take three to four years "}}" lang = "fr">If the Government of Canada decided to go ahead with the option of rebuilding the three satellites, if they were destroyed, it would cost $ 450 to $ 600 million and take three to four years
, replied in writing the Agency.

The explosion that changed everything

SpaceX has the contract to launch the three Canadian satellites. One of its rockets has already exploded after taking off in June 2015, causing a domino effect on the calendar of activities at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

For this reason, RADARSAT constellation satellite orbiting has been postponed to at least seven occasions since the fall.

And according to a government confidential document obtained last year by CBC, the delay meant that the Canadian Space Agency would have to rely on less complete data from RADARSAT-2 and for longer than expected. Consequence: additional costs of at least $ 54 million.

All will not be played so far Wednesday. After launch, the three satellites will then need to be commissioned. It will take between three and six months before they are fully operational.

Launching is one thing, but keep in mind that a series of important milestones will follow and will have to be completed until the start-up in the fall
says Marc Boucher, publisher of the SpaceQ news site.

The nervousness could still last a few weeks.

Byers believes that Ottawa should learn from it. "The first thing the government should do, once the three satellites are operational, is to award the contract to build the next satellites, and avoid a vacuum," he says.

Ottawa can not afford to wait. The useful life of the new satellites is the same as that of RADARSAT-2, which is seven years.

So you have to think about designing the next generation. But for now, there is no plan on the drawing board or funding.